See related story: The dominoes are falling
ANNAPOLIS -- Paul S. Sarbanes' announced retirement has sent a vast ripple throughout state politics, with delegates, senators, county council members and other political hopefuls salivating over what may be the best opportunity in a generation to move up the ladder.
With three of Maryland's eight sitting congressmen seriously weighing runs for Sarbanes' seat in 2006, there could be a logjam of Democrat and Republican legislators taking their shot to move into the big leagues. That would open opportunities down a level.
"It's going to draw people who have been starving for an opportunity out of the woodwork," said Thomas F. Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. Depending on how many congressmen end up running, dozens of state legislative and county council seats could open up, he said.
"Sarbanes' retirement is like a full employment act for politicians, at least for one cycle anyway," Schaller said. It will be a potential bonanza for pollsters and consultants, too.
Schaller said that if Attorney General J. Joseph Curran Jr. and Comptroller William Donald Schaefer follow Sarbanes into political retirement, it could be the biggest year in Maryland politics since 1986.
That was the election that voters installed Schaefer in the governor's office, Curran as attorney general, Barbara A. Mikulski in the Senate, Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. as Senate president and a host of other landmark races.
"You are talking about wholesale opening of so many potential seats up and down the political spectrum," said pollster G. Keith Haller.
"It's likely to cause a huge realignment of the 2006 elections. ... Everybody's got their planning operations under way and doing some wild speculations. I've heard 10 or 15 new ones a day. It's exciting for all the junkies out there. Sarbanes has contributed to shaking up the political process like no event I've seen in the last 20 years."
In District 8, the possible Senate candidacy of Rep. Christopher Van Hollen Jr. has stirred interest from a flock of state legislators and County Council members as well as former also-rans.
The list of candidates who might seek to replace him begins with the two men Van Hollen defeated in a vigorous 2002 primary: former Del. Mark K. Shriver and former trade ambassador Ira S. Shapiro.
Other Democrats who are indicating potential interest so far include Susan Turnbull, vice chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee; Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Terry L. Lierman; state Senate Judicial Proceedings Chairman Brian E. Frosh (Dist. 16); Sen. Robert J. Garagiola (Dist. 15); House Health and Government Operations Chairman John Adams Hurson (D-Dist. 18); Del. William A. Bronrott (D-Dist. 16); and members of the County Council, including President Thomas E. Perez (Dist. 5) and Philip M. Andrews (Dist. 3). Del. Jean B. Cryor (R-Dist. 15) said she also may be interested in running, and hasn't ruled out a U.S. Senate run either.
Perez told us that he sees 2006 as a "transformational year in Maryland politics" and an opportunity for the political leadership to better reflect the changing face of Maryland.
Haller said that he's talked to people in Montgomery who are worried that they are going to be asked by three or four of their friends to support their bid.
In District 3, the Baltimore suburban district represented by Benjamin L. Cardin (D), potential candidates include his nephew, Del. Jon S. Cardin (D-Dist. 11), Del. Neil F. Quinter (D-Dist. 13) of Columbia, Del. Shane E. Pendergrass (D-Dist. 13) of Columbia and Sen. Paula C. Hollinger (D-Dist. 11) of Pikesville. Republicans could include Robert P. Duckworth, the Anne Arundel County Circuit Court clerk who ran against Cardin last year.
In Congressional District 2, where C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger may bolt, national Democrats have already contacted Baltimore County Executive James T. Smith to see if he would be interested in running. Other candidates could include Sen. James L. Brochin (D-Dist. 42) of Towson and Baltimore County Councilman John Olszewski.
Republican Sen. Nancy Jacobs (R-Dist. 34) of Abingdon also is considering a run in District 2. And if Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele (R) takes the opportunity to run for Senate, Ehrlich will have to choose a new No. 2. But first things first.
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