With a faltering economy bearing down on government budgets like Hurricane Ike off the East Coast, the Montgomery County Executive is expected to announce his position on slots in the state as a way of bolstering state revenues.
At the same time, a group of his county's council members, along with state senators and delegates, are planning a press conference in Rockville on Monday to denounce slots.
Leggett (D) has long been opposed to slots, but has recently and repeatedly said in interviews that revenue from slots could be the only way to plug budget gaps and to secure money for his county and other counties in the state.
Leggett's potential change of heart could help slots supporters, like Gov. Martin O'Malley. If the county executive can sway Montgomery voters, it could tip the November referendum on the state-sponsored gambling. But a pro-slots stance could pose problems for Leggett if opponents for the executive office in 2010 are able to use his position against him.
"I think a lot has to do with what the vote shows in November," said Gail Ewing, a former county councilwoman. "If the majority of people in Montgomery County want slots, then his position will go along with voters. But if they vote against it, it will make him more vulnerable."
A challenge to Leggett will have more to do with the issues in 2010 than the slots referendum this year, Ewing said.
"From a pragmatic point of view he is making clear that this is what he needs to do to protect Montgomery County and I think people will understand that," she said.
But to get people to understand a potential switch in position, Leggett must clarify his message, said G. Keith Haller, pollster and president of Potomac Inc.
"It's absolutely imperative that he clarify why he's doing what he's doing," Haller said. "In prior communications it was unclear about why he has to all of a sudden become a strong proponent. For his own political future he's got to get out there and have a strong message for why he's taking what is a contrary position."
With the state facing a potential $1 billion budget gap in fiscal 2010, which begins July 1, and the county facing a $250 million gap in the same timeframe, circumstances have changed in the years since he opposed slots.
Already state leaders have warned that without gambling revenue, counties will have to bear more of the burden of paying for state services, specifically teacher pensions. According to data collected by the Maryland Association of Counties, the pensions cost Montgomery County $217.1 million or 15 cents on the property tax rate.
Some political observers believe the budget deliberations next year — and not slots — could prove more of a challenge for Leggett.
"It's such a long distance away from 2010 and there are many more issues that will come front and center and will be bellwether issues for executive in Montgomery County," Haller said. "It largely depends on if there is a major opposition effort and if Leggett is pitted as the problem."
Within the county, Republicans are already looking to pit Leggett as the problem, regardless of his position on slots.
"We plan on running a strong candidate against him no matter his position. His position will only help us in defeating him," said James F. Shalleck, chairman of the county GOP from the Republican National Convention in Minnesota. "We think he's very vulnerable and think his position on slots will make him even more vulnerable."
Leggett easily won the primary election two years ago, beating former County Councilman Steven A. Silverman, and went to also easily beat his Republican challenger Charles R. Floyd.
Shalleck says the GOP will once again field a candidate against Leggett, and that he has been in talks with a number of potential challengers, but would not release their names.
Not so fast, said Scott Arceneaux, senior adviser to the Marylanders United to Stop Slots organization.
"First of all Ike has not come out for slots. We're all waiting to see. We're going to lobby him to not come out for slots," he said. "We hope after he sees the press conference on Monday hopefully this gives him food for thought. We're going to remind Ike of all the Montgomery County groups that have come out against slots that have supported him in the past, and will have those groups lobby him."
Already lobbying against slots is State Comptroller Peter V.R. Franchot (D), also a Montgomery County resident.
"I hope the county executive who in previous years has expressed opposition to slots will continue that; and I hope he is forceful and speaks out in opposition to that and reminds people that Maryland doesn't benefit from slots," he said last week in Denver while at the Democratic National Convention.
And if Leggett doesn't?
"The grassroots are going to defeat slots not the leadership," Franchot said.
Last month an informal survey conducted by the Montgomery County Central Committee at the county fair found 37 percent of 600 people surveyed supported slots. Fifty-six percent opposed slots and 7 percent were undecided.
Statewide, a more formal survey conducted by a polling firm in June, found 63 percent of voters favored slots, 34 percent opposed and 3 percent undecided. A separate poll conducted in January found that 54 percent of voters supported slots, 38 opposed them and 8 percent of voters were undecided.
For his part, Leggett is not worried about potential fallout from his announcement.
"This is not the first time we've had debate in the county about slots," he said this week.
And working with council members and state lawmakers opposed to slots will not be any different either, he said.
"I think the reason for the quiet evolution [for lawmakers supporting slots] is the budget. No one believes that new taxes are going to come down; they are facing a $1 billion deficit and people are changing their mind but don't want to do it publicly. I would give Ike credit for that," said Adam Pagnucco, blogger at Maryland Politics Watch.
Pagnucco's blog recently ran polls and entries on Leggett's vulnerability during the next election.
"I think it's hard to find somebody with the combination of opportunity and stature to take him on unless he does something really, really bad or makes some horrible mistake … and I don't think we've reached that tipping point."